The IPA Bellwether report for Q3 2026 is the most positive our industry has had in more than two years. A net balance of 14.3% of companies revised their UK marketing budgets upwards, the strongest showing in nine quarters. Every category grew. Video hit a two-year high, and other online spend rose by 17.2%.
It’s positive to see growth in media spend at a nine-quarter high, but my watchout is that it’s coming as a result of a softening of sales delivery. Look at sales. Promotion. It’s gone from 0.9% in Q2 to 13.1% this quarter, and brands don’t increase promotions when sales are strong.
I’m glad to see advertising being used as a growth lever in that context. Plenty of businesses would have done the opposite and cut. But spending more is only half the decision. The other half is where it goes. Even the IPA’s Director General, Paul Bainsfair, warns in the report that marketers should be wary of becoming hooked on short-term activation.
Budget isn’t a strategy
You can’t just throw everything at the wall and see what sticks just because you have the budget. We have more automation, more platforms, more data than ever, but that doesn’t mean more distinction.
If anything, it means less. Everyone has the same tools, the same platforms and broadly the same audiences. So where does the edge come from? From the choices you make with them. Distinction doesn’t come free with the tech stack. It has to be engineered.
AI search and AV: two shifts every media plan should reflect
I hope that investment is being carefully planned in a way that recognises a fundamental shift in the search market and takes advantage of the increasing connection between AV and ROI.
The first is search. People still use search engines, and more and more of them also ask AI assistants for answers and recommendations, and what those answers say depends on a brand’s whole footprint, not only its paid search account. My watchout here is simple, if your plan still treats search the way it did two years ago, its already out of date.
The second is the increasing connection between AV and ROI. Video budgets are at their highest net balance in two years, and the IPA’s own commentary points to the panellists raising spend because their existing campaigns are delivering results. So stop treating AV as the awareness line that sits off to one side of the plan. Plan it for business from day one.
Make a plan and stick with it
Brands need to be deliberate about where they invest, understand and act on how different channels complement each other, remove silos and take a measured approach. This means having a clear plan and sticking with it long term, ensuring every investment works toward the same goal.
A bigger budget means more teams, more partners and more dashboards, and every one of them wants to see its own number go up. Someone has to hold the line on what the whole plan is actually for.
What this means for Christmas media planning
This is especially important as we look towards the Christmas campaign season. How does the work and investment made now, in the busiest ad season of the year, support long-term business goals? Christmas is when the pull towards short-term wins is strongest, and when getting it wrong costs the most. S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the Bellwether for the IPA, has also cut its 2027 adspend growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.3%, so this Christmas budget may be more generous than next year’s.
Ultimately, it’s about seeking out the choices that make a meaningful difference. Those that will see the greatest return will be the ones that judge their media investment by what it delivers for the business, rather than how individual channels perform in spreadsheets.
At Carat, that’s what we mean by Difference Engineered. A bigger budget gives you more options. It doesn’t give you a better plan. The difference comes from the choices you make with it, and from making every channel pull towards the same result for business.
Mike first shared these views with Performance Marketing World as part of its IPA Bellwether Q3 reactions article. Read the full piece (subscription required).
