As part of the integrated network of global dentsu agencies, Carat has access to vast resources, specialists, partnerships data, and insights which we’re able to leverage for the benefit of our clients and colleagues in order to help understand what’s next. One of these valuable insight tools is the bi-annual dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts report which looks at advertising spending from almost 60 markets around the world to project brand behaviours and media industry trends for the coming years.
The midyear follow-up to the January 2022 edition of the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts points to a continued recovery despite another year of economic uncertainty, with global 2022 ad spend of US$738.5b. We have adjusted our 2022 growth forecast by -0.4 percentage points from 9.1% to 8.7% off a stronger base in 2021 and with the expectation of rising inflation impacting consumer demand. Looking ahead, we expect the 2023 global advertising market to increase by 5.4% to reach US$778.6b followed by a further 5.1% increase in 2024.
In 2022, the Americas will be both the top ad spend region at US$329.6b and the most dynamic region with spend increasing by 13.1%. In terms of growth, however, India (+16.0% YOY growth) will stay ahead of the United States (+12.8%) and Brazil (+9.0%) as the fastest growing market.
Digital continues to be a key driver of global ad market growth and is on an upward trajectory. It is forecast to grow by 14.2% in 2022 to reach US$409.9b, a 55.5% share of global ad spend. Fueling this growth, advertisers are reacting to the increased volume of online shopping, including grocery shopping, by prioritising outcome-based performance investment in Search, Social, and Video. Retail Media spend is up, too, reflecting advertisers’ focus on finding consumers where they are online and forming authentic connections with them.
Overall year-on-year ad spend is expected to be up 3.6% across Total TV – Linear TV and BVOD to reach US$192.8b in 2022 boosted by the FIFA World Cup scheduled in Q4. Linear TV will grow by 2.0% year-on-year while BVOD is expected to grow by 16%, and advances in addressable TV will clear the way for further growth.
We maintain our double-digit growth forecast for Out-of-Home (OOH) and Cinema, with 11.5% and 19.6% growth respectively. Audio will grow more slowly at +5.0%, with Digital Radio accounting for 23.5% of Audio media investments. Print forecast is negative at –3.6%, in line with structural trends observed for several years.
We invite advertisers to reflect specifically on two spaces to watch in the media landscape covered in the report as they look to optimise their media investment strategies:
- The revolution of attention metrics, now being used for media planning
Since 2018, dentsu has invested in the Attention Economy programme; and our research proved that attention increases both the ability for consumers to recall the ads and their likelihood to buy the brands. Therefore, metrics such as attention (whether someone looks at the ad), dwell time (how long someone looks at the ad) and brand outcome (how big of an impact did each attentive second have) are important for brands to get closer to a more meaningful representation of consumer behaviour across platforms. Combining these metrics with costs and impressions enable us to build CPMs based on an “effective attentive second” for planning purposes. Additionally, the programme has led to the creation of a powerful attention predictive model that can be applied to advertisers’ buying and measurement needs, under a suite of solutions called dentsu effective solution.
- The sustainability imperative, as new local regulations are set to change the media landscape
In April 2022, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed demand-side mitigation for the first time ever, calling for widescale societal changes, including more sustainable consumption. As the global policy landscape is shifting quickly, it is critical for advertisers to understand the implications for their brands. For instance, the UK is the first country to enshrine their net zero policy into law, ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030, and in France, a new law exposes car advertisers to a €50K fine in they do not clearly promote alternative modes of transport in their commercials. Innovative solutions can help advertisers make their media efforts more sustainable. At dentsu, we are combining in-house innovation with industry initiatives such as DIMPACT, and we are piloting a digital media carbon calculator for our clients to quantify the emissions related to their digital media placements, transfers and distributions.
Of course, the revised media investment forecasts should be read in the context of significant ongoing uncertainty related to the global pandemic, escalating media price inflation, geopolitical tension, upcoming key elections, and one of the most anticipated global sports events of the year, the FIFA World Cup, overlapping with the ‘holidays’ period for the first time. Dentsu recommend the industry keep a close eye on key economic indicators, which is what we will be doing in partnership with our clients at Caratto ensure we’re understanding how these changes impact our work.
For more information, please download the full dentsu Ad Spend Report