Carat Moderates Global Ad Spend Growth Forecasts To 5.0% For 2011
Long-term trend of two-speed world and rapid digital growth continues
Carat, the world’s leading independent media communications agency, today publishes its updated forecasts for global advertising expenditure for 2011 and 2012. Carat’s data shows global advertising expenditure has and will continue to grow in 2011, outperforming the advertising market levels of 2008. Carat now predicts that global advertising expenditure will grow by + 5.0%, dipping from the + 5.7% predicted in March 2011, reflecting the caution sparked by global macro-economic factors, natural disasters and political instability in a number of parts of the world.
For 2012, Carat continues to predict robust growth with the global advertising market growing by + 6.0% (March 2011: + 6.2%), boosted by a year of events including the 2012 Olympics, the UEFA European Football Championship and the US presidential elections. By media, digital remains the driving force in the market in terms of growth, continuing to outstrip other media sectors, followed by Out of Home and Television.
(NB: All figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from March 2011. The forecasts for August 2011 (and for future forecasts) include data from the Middle Easterncountries of Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Pan Arab, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.)
| Year on year % growth at current prices | ||
| 2011 | 2012 | |
| Global | 5.0 (5.7) | 6.0 (6.2) |
| North America | 3.2 (3.9) | 5.5 (5.9) |
| Western Europe | 2.3 (3.5) | 3.0 (3.3) |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 10.1 (9.5) | 11.6 (11.9) |
| Asia Pacific | 7.1 (8.0) | 6.9 (7.0) |
| Latin America | 13.0 (13.0 | 12.9 (12.9) |
Sector Breakdown
| Global year on year % growth at current prices | ||
| 2011 | 2012 | |
| Television | 6.0 (6.7) | 6.2 (6.5) |
| Newspapers | 0.1 (0.3) | 0.6 (0.6) |
| Magazines | -0.4 (0.3) | 2.3 (2.0) |
| Radio | 4.0 (6.1) | 5.5 (6.5) |
| Cinema | 5.2 (5.6) | 3.8 (5.6) |
| Out of Home | 6.3 (7.2) | 8.1 (7.8) |
| Digital | 13.3 (13.6) | 14.4 (14.5) |
| Global % share of Advertising Spend | ||
| 2011 | 2012 | |
| Television | 46.0 (46.1) | 46.1 (46.3) |
| Newspapers | 16.2 (15.8)15.4 (15.0) | 15.4 (15.0) |
| Magazines | 10.0 (10.2)9.6 (9.8) | 2.3 (2.0) |
| Radio | 7.1 (7.3) | 7.1 (7.3) |
| Cinema | 0.6 (0.6) | 0.6 (0.6) |
| Out of Home | 7.1 (7.0) | 7.2 (7.1) |
| Digital | 13.0 (13.0) | 14.0 (14.0) |
Commenting on the Carat ad spend forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, Chief Executive of Aegis Group plc, said:
“Carat’s updated global ad forecasts demonstrate that the recovery in most major advertising markets has continued in 2011 and is set to continue in 2012, against the backdrop of uncertain times. The impact of global macro-economic and political issues, combined with natural disasters, as led us to soften the full-year outlook for 2011 and 2012.
“At the heart of the market, the long-term trend of the two-speed advertising world and the rapid growth of digital are very much in force. The faster-growing regions of the world – particularly China, Russia and Latin America – will continue to eclipse performances from the developed economies. In terms of the growth in media share digital remains the leader of the pack, with Out of Home and TV growing faster than the overall market.
“Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic, particularly about the outlook of 2012, when global events such as the Olympics will undoubtedly fuel advertising demand.”