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Carat forecasts growth of 5.0% for 2012 and 5.3% in 2013 with digital advertising overtaking newspapers sooner than expected

Carat by Carat

Carat, the world’s leading independent media communications agency, today publishes its updated forecasts for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2012 and 2013.

 

Carat’s data shows global advertising expenditure will continue to grow in 2012 and 2013. Carat predicts  global advertising expenditure will grow by + 5.0%, reduced from +6.0% predicted in March 2012, and global advertising spend forecast for 2013 will grow by +5.3%, down from the previously forecast +5.8% in March 2012.

 

These latest forecasts are consistent with our view of the two-speed world whereby we continue to see significant growth from the faster-growing regions of the world versus the lower levels of growth in the developed economies of the US and Western Europe, with Western Europe being impacted by low or negative growth, particularly in Southern Europe.

 

The data also shows that global investment in Digital Advertising will overtake investment in Newspapers sooner than expected, in 2012 rather than 2013, as audiences continue to move online.

 

By media, Digital remains the driving force in the market in terms of growth, continuing to outstrip growth in other verticals, followed by Out-of-Home and Television.

 

 

Year on year % growth at current prices

 

2012

2013

GLOBAL

5.0 (6.0)

5.3 (5.8)

NORTH AMERICA

4.9 (5.0)

5.3 (4.3)

USA

4.9 (4.9)

5.3 (4.2)

CANADA

3.3 (5.4)

4.3 (6.1)

WESTERN EUROPE

0.2 (1.5)

1.1 (2.2)

UK

2.8 (4.0)

2.8 (3.4)

GERMANY

1.1 (1.2)

1.5 (2.0)

FRANCE

0.5 (1.5)

1.9 (1.9)

ITALY

-5.0 (1.2)

-0.4 (1.0)

SPAIN

-8.0 (-4.7)

-5.4 (1.6)

C&EE

7.9 (9.5)

8.8 (9.0)

RUSSIA

14.1 (15.2)

13.1 (12.8)

ASIA PACIFIC

6.8 (8.7)

6.5 (8.6)

AUSTRALIA

1.0 (2.9)

2.0 (2.7)

CHINA

11.0 (14.7)

9.8 (14.6)

JAPAN

2.9 (3.0)

2.8 (0.7)

LATIN AMERICA

12.0 (10.7)

9.0 (8.2)

BRAZIL

12.8 (10.5)

9.4 (8.0)


Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Mar 2012

Commenting on the Carat forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, Chief Executive of Aegis Group said:

“Carat’s latest ad spend forecasts show the continuation of two fundamental trends which have changed the advertising industry.  Firstly, Digital Media continues to grow materially ahead of all the other media and has overtaken newspapers – a year earlier than expected – to become the second largest medium in terms of advertising spend, behind TV. The trend of audiences moving online shows no sign of slowing down, as demand for online content and the proliferation of internet and mobile access increases.  In parallel to this, the trend of the two-speed world continues, with the rates of growth in the emerging economies remaining well ahead of the US and Western Europe.

 

“With these two themes – globalisation and convergence – the media landscape is becoming increasingly complex.  In addition, it is creating exciting new growth opportunities for the global advertisers and changing the demands they place on the advertising groups.  In these changing times, for those that have the most focused and specialist offerings, along with the global reach and scale to provide innovative integrated solutions that deliver real results, there are exciting times ahead.”

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