Carat Adspend Report SEPTEMBER 2016

08/09/2016

DIGITAL SPEND TO DOMINATE GROWTH IN 2017 & HIT US$168.2 BILLION

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Carat, the leading global media network, today publishes its updated forecasts for worldwide advertising expenditure, showing a positive outlook for the global advertising market in 2016, set to continue in 2017 powered by the ongoing growth of Digital*.

Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s latest global forecasts show that advertising spend will reach US$548.2 billion in 2016, accounting for a +4.4% year-on-year growth. The healthy outlook is fuelled by a buoyant 2016, marked by high-interest media events including the UEFA EURO championship, the Rio 2016 Olympics and Paralympics, as well as the upcoming US presidential elections.

In 2016, Carat reports a positive outlook for most regions with particularly robust growth in North America (+5.0%) and strong recovery in Russia (+6.2%), countering lower expectations in some markets. The US continues to show positive market confidence with forecasts revised up to +5.0% as the US presidential elections alone are expected to generate US$7.5 billion of incremental spend. Despite a slight moderation following the EU referendum, the UK continues to be the largest advertising market in Western Europe, with positive growth of +5.4% expected in 2016, exceeding the average rate of +2.9% in the region. Advertising forecasts are also set to remain strong in Latin America and Asia Pacific, with +10% and +3.9% growth respectively in 2016, in spite of Brazil’s lower expectations and China’s adjustments to its ‘new normal’ economic landscape.

Despite a slight decline due to volatility in some markets, the positive momentum of the global advertising spend is expected to continue into 2017 reaching US$570.4 billion, a +4.0% year-on-year growth, led by the ongoing upsurge of Digital media. As the leading media type in 13 of the markets analysed, Digital continues to grow at double-digit prediction levels of +15.6% in 2016, accelerating further at +13.6% in 2017. Driven by the high demand of Mobile, Online Video and Social Media, Digital media spend is expected to reach 27.7% share of total global media spend in 2016, increasing to a predicted 30.2% in 2017.

Whilst TV* continues to hold the highest share of total media spend of 41.1% in 2016 - boosted by high-interest media events - it is expected to grow at a more moderate rate of +2.3% in 2017 with a lower predicted share of spend at 40.3%.

In line with expectations, Print* advertising spend is forecast to continue to decline by -5.5% in 2016 and by -4.3% next year. Excluding Print, Carat’s forecasts reconfirm year-on-year growth for all other media in 2016, highlighting year-on-year positive growth in Cinema (+4.5%), Radio (+2.4%) and OOH (+3.5%), with predictions slightly revised down for 2017. 

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